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 Support The DrudgeReport; Visit Our Advertisers  CNNUSATODAYGALLUP POLL: BUSH REBOUND Mon Mar 29 2004 16:58:41 ET Interviews with 1,001 adult Americans, including 590 likely voters, conducted by telephone on March 26-28, 2004. If the election were held today, 51% of likely voters would choose President Bush in a two-way race and 47% would pick John Kerry. That's a notable drop for Kerry since February, fueled in part by a drop in enthusiasm among Democrats and a barrage of GOP campaign ads that have driven Kerry's favorable ratings down significantly. Growing numbers of Americans say that Kerry is too liberal and that they trust Bush more on sending U.S. troops to war. Most Americans also believe that Kerry would raise their taxes -- all indications that the GOP ad campaign may have had some effect. In a three-way race, Ralph Nader appears to be pulling support from Bush and Kerry equally: Bush's support among likely voters drops from 51% to 49% while Kerry's support drops from 47% to 45%. That adds up to 4% for Nader among likely voters -- a fairly low number consistent with the finding that nearly half the country has an unfavorable view of Nader. One potential source of change that should not go overlooked is what seems to have happened to Democrats now that the primary season is over. At the height of the primaries, Democrats appeared more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans. Now that the unsustainable excitement of the primaries has faded, the number of enthusiastic Democratic voters appears to have fallen as well. (That phenomenon affects the "likely voter" model, but Bush has a similar 49%-46% margin among all registered voters.) It is also worth noting, however, that both parties are significantly more enthusiastic about voting than at this time in the 2000 campaign -- an early indication that the election will be a memorable one. With only about one in six voters saying that they could change their minds, the battle for those swing voters (particularly if the campaigns concentrate only on swing voters in swing states) could become intense. As always, bear in mind that Bush's advantage over Kerry falls within the sampling error, so it in a purely statistical sense, this election remains too close to call. Bush's overall approval rating is again above the 50% mark, always a good sign for an incumbent. See the file slugged "3/29 - clarke/9-11" for a complete description of how his numbers on terrorism and Iraq have been affected by last week's events in the 9/11 commission and elsewhere. CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Likely Voters' Choice for President Bush 51% Kerry 47 Sampling error: +/-4% pts QUESTION: If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for? CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Likely Voters' Choice for President Bush 49% Kerry 45 Nader 4 Sampling error: +/-4% pts QUESTION: Now suppose Ralph Nader runs as an independent candidate, who would you be most likely to vote for? CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Opinion of John Kerry Now February Favorable 53% 60% Unfavorable 36 26 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Favorable Opinion of... Now February Bush 57% 56% Kerry 53 60 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Opinion of Kerry Now February Too liberal 41% 29% About right 37 46 Too conservative 9 8 Sampling error: +/-3% pts CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL March 26-28 Opinion of Bush Now February Too liberal 15% 18% About right 40 36 Too conservative 38 39 Sampling error: +/-3% pts |
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