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 It's November: time for a revolution in a former Soviet republic Sat Nov 27 2004 22:46:46 ET MOSCOW (AFP) - November is fast becoming the month for revolutions in former Soviet republics -- a year after Georgia peacefully ousted its communist-era leadership Ukraine could be next to follow suit. "It'll be the same as in Georgia," vowed Oleg Seyko as he rode a bus headed toward Ukraine's capital Kiev filled with people who, like him, were clad in the opposition's color orange. Thousands of people like 21-year-old Seyko have poured into the streets as part of the pro-Western opposition's well-organized campaign over a disputed election -- which bears an eerie resemblance to what happened in Georgia a year ago. Back then, massive crowds protested at what they said were rigged parliamentary elections, eventually forcing veteran leader Eduard Shevardandze to step aside in favor of a Western-educated reformer, Mikhail Saakashvili. Today the crowds are in Ukraine railing against a presidential poll they say was stolen by the government of long-time leader Leonid Kuchma from Western-leaning opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, accusing pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich of stealing the election through ballot fraud. Whether the protesters will succeed remains uncertain. But the similarities between the two uprisings are not difficult to find. Like Georgia, Ukraine has a youth opposition movement that has been instrumental in rallying people to join the protests -- Tbilisi had Kmara (Enough), Kiev has Pora (It is Time). Both are modeled on Serbia's Otpor (Resistance), which played a key role in bringing down Slobodan Milosevic in 2000. Like Georgia, Ukraine's opposition leader favors orienting his country away from Moscow toward the West to cheers from Washington and European capitals and to Russia's great annoyance ("This test is more trying than the famous events in Georgia," Kremlin's point man on Europe grimly warned on Saturday). Furthermore the leaders of the two revolutions are friends -- Georgia's Saakashvili attended university in Ukraine and shortly after leading his "rose revolution" came to Kiev to sign a cooperation pact with Yushchenko. And finally the two leaders both have pretty, Western wives -- Saakashvili's spouse is Dutch while Yushchenko's is American. "What happened in Georgia a year ago is something that a lot of people in Ukraine are aware of," said Mark Mullen, the chief of Transparency International in Georgia who witnessed firsthand Tbilisi's revolution. Whether Ukraine will have an "orange revolution" to match Georgia's "rose" one is far from clear. "Ukraine is not quite like Georgia," said Olexander Sushko, a political analyst in Kiev. "In Georgia 90 percent of the population backed Saakashvili. In Ukraine up to 30 percent don't back Yushchenko and their interests need to be taken into account." "But Yushchenko clearly has the support of most of the country," he said. Indeed the opposition's chances were boosted late on Thursday when journalists at Ukraine's national television channels shrugged of censorship and began to cover the opposition rallies -- a sympathetic national channel was critical to the success of Georgia's revolution last year. Yushchenko supporters vow that they will not be outdone by their Georgian counterparts of last year. "It took them three weeks in Georgia," said Zinovy Siryk, mayor of the opposition bastion of Lviv in western Ukraine. "We'll go on for three months if we have to." |
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